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The Incentives Lab
Fallacy · Statistical

Texas Sharpshooter

Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.

"Define success after you see the result. Stunning track record."

Quick answer

What is Texas Sharpshooter? Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed. Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.

In the wild

Selecting the markets where a strategy worked; ignoring the rest.

Why it matters in the room

Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.

Visual · Broken inference
P1P2P3P4∴ ?
Texas Sharpshooter chains valid-looking steps to an invalid conclusion.
Live · Catch texas sharpshooter

A consultant shows you that the 11 companies in their portfolio all outperform the S&P. Honestly:

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Human Behavior Element™ · HBE Spec

The full taxonomy entry

Every concept in the Atlas uses the same structure — so Texas Sharpshooter can be compared, recombined, and cited like an element on a periodic table.

About the standard →
F
TS
HBT-F6406
Official name
Texas Sharpshooter
Fallacy · Statistical
Identity
HBT ID
HBT-F6406
Symbol
TS
Official name
Texas Sharpshooter
Synonyms
Statistical
Keywords
Fallacy, Statistical, human behavior, incentive design
Version
v1.0
Last updated
Maintained by The Incentives Lab
Classification
Kingdom
Cognition
Domain
Reasoning
Family
Logical Fallacy
Class
Statistical
Element
Texas Sharpshooter
Definition
Scientific
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
Plain-English
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
Feynman
Define success after you see the result. Stunning track record.
Core principle
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
One-sentence summary
Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.
Mechanisms
Psychological
Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.
Behavioral econ.
Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.
Neurological
Reward, threat, and salience circuits bias attention toward the cue.
Evolutionary
Heuristics that paid off in ancestral environments now misfire in modern systems.
Sociological
Group norms and status incentives reinforce the pattern across a team.
Computational
Models trained on biased human signals will replicate and amplify the pattern.
Systems thinking
Feedback loops between metrics, incentives, and behavior lock the pattern in place.
Signals & signature
Inputs (activators)
Selecting the markets where a strategy worked; ignoring the rest.
Outputs (observable)
Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.
Behavioral signature
You see Texas Sharpshooter when the explanation for a decision sounds reasonable but the outcome keeps repeating.
Behavioral molecules
Often combines with related Atlas entries — see the rail below.
Pathways · before
A goal, metric, or contract clause makes the behavior rational locally.
Pathways · after
Locally rational choices accumulate into a systemic distortion.
Domains where it shows up
  • Business
  • Leadership
  • Government
  • Healthcare
  • Education
  • Sales
  • Marketing
  • AI
  • Negotiation
  • Media
  • Public Policy
  • Relationships
Examples
Everyday
Selecting the markets where a strategy worked; ignoring the rest.
Modern
Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.
Historical
A pattern repeatedly documented since the foundational behavioral science literature on logical fallacy.
Famous experiments
See the References block — primary papers in the Atlas link out to the original studies.
Design principles
How to leverage
Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.
How to reduce
Make the perverse payoff visible; remove or invert it.
How to redesign
Redesign the incentive so texas sharpshooter stops being the path of least resistance.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How it's exploited
Organizations weaponize texas sharpshooter — sometimes deliberately, often by accident — when metrics reward the symptom rather than the outcome.
Common perverse incentives
Volume metrics, short review windows, bonus cliffs, and contracts that pay on activity rather than impact.
Failure modes
When Texas Sharpshooter dominates, teams optimize for the dashboard while the real outcome quietly degrades.
Incentive redesign
Pay for the outcome you actually want; remove rewards for behavior that only looks like the outcome.
Ethical considerations
Don't engineer texas sharpshooter into customers, employees, or citizens as a manipulation tactic — design for informed choice instead.
Diagnostic questions
  • Where in our org would Texas Sharpshooter most often show up unnoticed?
  • Which metric, ritual, or contract clause quietly rewards Texas Sharpshooter?
  • If we removed every payoff for Texas Sharpshooter, what behavior would replace it?
  • Who benefits when Texas Sharpshooter persists — and who pays the cost?
Organizational warning signs
Metrics
A KPI is hit while the underlying outcome stalls or worsens.
Behaviors
People route around the rule rather than challenge it.
Language
'That's just how we do it here.' / 'The system requires it.'
Culture
Naming the pattern is treated as disloyalty.
Red flags
  • People defend the status quo using the language of texas sharpshooter.
  • Decisions cluster around the easiest narrative rather than the strongest evidence.
  • New data changes the slide deck but not the decision.
  • Anyone naming the pattern is treated as the problem.
Intervention playbook
Immediate
Make the perverse payoff visible to the people creating it.
30-day
Run a small pilot that pays for the outcome, not the proxy.
Long-term
Rewrite the comp plan, contract, or ritual so the right behavior becomes the easy behavior.
AI considerations
Detect
Audit training data and reward signals for the same pattern this element describes.
Avoid amplifying
Don't optimize models on metrics that already encode the perverse incentive.
Counteract
Use the model to surface where the pattern is most active, then redesign the incentive — not the model.
Measurement
Metrics
Outcome-to-proxy ratio over time.
Assessment
The Incentives Lab III Diagnostic.
Survey
Calibrated pulse questions on rules vs. outcomes.
Behavioral signals
Where people work around the system.
Observational
Where the dashboard and the lived experience disagree.
Scientific evidence
Evidence grade
Synthesized from the behavioral science literature; see Atlas references.
Replication
Tracked in the Atlas as primary, replicated, or contested.
Intervention confidence
Moderate — patterns generalize, mechanisms vary by context.
Research consensus
Broad agreement on the pattern; ongoing debate on boundary conditions.
Known limitations
Local context, culture, and incentive structure all change the strength of the effect.
Open questions
How does Texas Sharpshooter interact with AI-mediated decisions at scale?
References
Meta-analyses
Tracked in the Atlas registry.
Seminal authors
Kahneman, Tversky, Thaler, Ariely, Cialdini, Ostrom, Simon — and the field they built.
Cross references

Every Atlas entry is a node in a knowledge graph. See the related rail below to follow the connections.

Disciplinary layers

See Texas Sharpshooter through this lens

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Go deeper

Worked example, counter-example & concept map

On-demand AI analysis grounded in the Lab's research. Cached on your device after first run.

How this lands in you

Your nervous system has a region for this.

Primary region
Prefrontal Cortex

When you encounter Texas Sharpshooter, your prefrontal cortex has to do extra work to override the automatic response — and that override budget is finite.

Executive control, planning, impulse override, working memory, System 2. First thing to go offline under stress, fatigue, or low blood sugar. Why your 4pm decisions are worse than your 9am ones.

See Prefrontal in the Brain Atlas →
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