The Incentives Lab
Fallacy Lab · Glossary

The reasoning errors quietly running boardrooms.

A searchable library of 67 logical fallacies, each one with the example you've absolutely heard in a meeting and the business consequence you've absolutely paid for.

You will recognize 80% of these in the next executive meeting you attend. Sorry.

Speed Tax ↗

Fallacies were tolerable when arguments took weeks. They aren't when decisions take minutes.

Root-Out Framework →

Fallacy Lab · Diagnostic

Which logical fallacy wins arguments in your room?

An 8-question diagnostic surfaces the fallacy most often going unchallenged in your meetings. Four minutes. Members unlock the counter-move that exposes it without burning the room down.

Take the diagnostic →
Lessons · Reasoning at Altitude

Four lessons before the catalog.

The catalog below is the encyclopedia of broken reasoning. These four lessons teach the moves you'll actually use in the room. Hover any underlined term to see the definition.

L1

The false dichotomy that swallows strategy

Video coming soon
Reasoning · False Dichotomy
The false dichotomy that swallows strategy
6 min

"We invest in AI now, or we become Blockbuster." Almost every catastrophic capital decision gets smuggled into the room this way. The two-option frame shuts down the third, fourth, and best options before they are spoken, and lets fear win on procedural grounds.

The countermove is institutional: any binary in a strategy memo must be answered with at least three additional options before a decision is made.

L2

Bandwagon in a suit

Video coming soon
Influence · Social Proof
Bandwagon in a suit
6 min

Healthy social proof is a useful shortcut. Bandwagon reasoning is its degenerate cousin: "every competitor added AI, so we should too" is not a thesis. It is the absence of one, dressed up in authority from the people who got there first.

Require an independent investment thesis before any "me too" move, in writing, before the deck.

L3

The sunk cost speech you'll hear this quarter

Video coming soon
Decision · Sunk Cost
The sunk cost speech you'll hear this quarter
7 min

"We've spent $20M; let's spend $5M more to feel better about the $20M." The sunk cost fallacy is the most reliably expensive failure mode in corporate finance, because admitting the loss feels like admitting personal fault.

Test: if we were starting fresh today, would we fund this? Honor the answer in writing.

L4

Steelman as a leadership habit

Video coming soon
Reasoning · Steelman
Steelman as a leadership habit
5 min

If you cannot pass your opponent's argument back to them better than they made it, you are not ready to disagree. Steelmanning is the single most under-practiced reasoning habit in executive rooms — and the one whose introduction most reliably 10x's debate quality inside a quarter.

67 of 67 entries
Relevance

Strawman

Misrepresenting an argument to make it easier to attack.

"Set the other side on fire, then claim victory over the ashes."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'You want to invest in AI? So you want to fire everyone.'

Why it matters in the room

Strategy debates collapse into caricatures of opposing views.

Relevance

Steelman (the cure)

Restating the strongest version of your opponent's argument before responding.

"If you can't pass their argument back to them better than they made it, you're not ready to disagree."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Before refuting the CFO, the CEO restates her case more persuasively than she did.

Why it matters in the room

Debate quality 10x's when steelmanning is the room norm.

Relevance

False Dichotomy

Presenting two options as the only possibilities.

"'Either we cut 20% or we go under.' (Or we think harder.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Strategy framed as 'transform or die' to suppress the third option.

Why it matters in the room

Eliminates the third, fourth, and best options before they're spoken.

Definition

Circular Reasoning

The conclusion is hidden inside the premise.

"Our culture is what makes us us — because our culture is what makes us us."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Our process works because we follow it.'

Why it matters in the room

Foundational assumptions never get re-examined.

Relevance

Appeal to Authority

It's true because authority says so.

"McKinsey recommends it, so we should do it. (No.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Brand-name validation substitutes for first-principles thinking.

Why it matters in the room

Outsourcing thinking to the consultancy with the better deck.

Causation

Slippery Slope

A small step inevitably leads to extreme consequences.

"Allow remote work and no one will ever come to the office again. Or talk to their family."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Risk theater that blocks reasonable, reversible experiments.

Why it matters in the room

Pilots killed because someone narrated them to their worst-case.

Relevance

Ad Hominem

Attacking the person rather than the argument.

"Shoot the messenger; ignore the message; report success."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Dismissing analysis because the analyst once worked for a competitor.

Why it matters in the room

Decision quality declines when credentials become the proxy for content.

Relevance

Tu Quoque (Whataboutism)

Deflecting by pointing to the other side doing it too.

"Their hypocrisy is not your alibi."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'But our competitors do worse.' Doesn't change whether we should.

Why it matters in the room

Accountability conversations dissolve into mutual finger-pointing.

Relevance

Bandwagon Fallacy

It's true because many believe it.

"If everyone is doing it, that's exactly the time to ask why."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Every competitor adds AI; we must add it somewhere.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy by consensus, not by analysis.

Relevance

Appeal to Tradition

It's right because it's how we've always done it.

"The phrase 'best practice' is doing a lot of work in that sentence."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Comp plans unchanged since 2007, defended on principle.

Why it matters in the room

Legacy practices preserved past their useful life.

Relevance

Appeal to Novelty

It's better because it's newer.

"It uses GenAI, so it must be the future."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'It's an LLM' as a substitute for 'it works.'

Why it matters in the room

Recency dressed up as strategic foresight.

Statistical

Hasty Generalization

Sweeping conclusions from a small sample.

"Five customers. One pattern. One billion-dollar decision."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Pilot of 5 succeeds — roll it out company-wide.

Why it matters in the room

Premature scaling of unrepresentative results.

Statistical

Anecdotal Evidence

A single story used as proof of a general claim.

"My uncle smoked til ninety. Therefore, smoking is fine."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'I tried it once and it worked,' as a strategy justification.

Why it matters in the room

Roadmaps reshaped by the loudest customer story of the week.

Statistical

Cherry-Picking

Selecting only the data that supports the conclusion.

"Statistics, like prisoners, will confess under enough torture."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Quarterly reports that emphasize the one metric that improved.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy memos that look rigorous and aren't.

Statistical

Texas Sharpshooter

Drawing a target around wherever the bullets landed.

"Define success after you see the result. Stunning track record."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Selecting the markets where a strategy worked; ignoring the rest.

Why it matters in the room

Post-hoc narratives that look like predictive insight.

Statistical

Survivorship Bias (as a fallacy)

Generalizing from winners while ignoring identical losers.

"Founder advice is the most expensive selection bias in business."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Copying the habits of breakout startups; the same habits killed many others.

Why it matters in the room

Best-practice frameworks built on survivor data alone.

Statistical

Base Rate Neglect

Ignoring underlying probabilities in favor of vivid specifics.

"The story is true. The story is also a one-in-ten-thousand."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Fearing the spectacular failure; ignoring the common one happening now.

Why it matters in the room

Risk programs that miss the modal failure entirely.

Causation

Correlation Implies Causation

Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.

"Ice cream sales correlate with drownings. Outlaw ice cream."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Top performers all use this tool, so the tool produces top performance.'

Why it matters in the room

Performance management built on confounded variables.

Causation

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

B followed A, therefore A caused B.

"We launched the campaign and revenue went up. Must have been us."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Crediting a turnaround to the new strategy when the market simply recovered.

Why it matters in the room

Attribution theater that distorts the next year's investments.

Causation

Affirming the Consequent

If A then B; B happened; therefore A.

"Top performers love the bonus. So the bonus makes top performers. (No.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Promoting bonus expansion because high performers always cash theirs.

Why it matters in the room

Correlation upgraded to causation in performance management.

Causation

Denying the Antecedent

If A then B; not A; therefore not B.

"If you train hard you win. We didn't train hard. So we won't win? Not necessarily."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Cutting a program because the predicted condition didn't happen — even though the outcome still might.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy logic that misreads conditional structure.

Causation

Single Cause Fallacy

Assuming one cause where many are at play.

"The strategy worked because of leadership. (Also: timing, luck, capital, market, competitors…)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Crediting a turnaround entirely to one new exec hire.

Why it matters in the room

Multi-factor outcomes attributed to one factor; lessons mis-learned.

Relevance

Genetic Fallacy

Judging an argument by its origin rather than its merit.

"'It came from McKinsey, so it must be true.' / 'It came from sales, so it must be self-interested.'"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Dismissing data because of where it came from rather than what it says.

Why it matters in the room

Insight loss along departmental and seniority lines.

Relevance

Appeal to Ignorance

Claiming something is true because it hasn't been proven false (or vice versa).

"'We have no evidence of harm.' (Because no one measured.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

'No one's complained, so we must be doing fine.'

Why it matters in the room

Silence misread as endorsement.

Definition

No True Scotsman

Redefining a category to exclude counterexamples.

"'No real leader would resist AI.' — said the leader resisting nuance."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Dismissing dissent by reclassifying dissenters as not real practitioners.

Why it matters in the room

Critical feedback escaped by redefinition.

Ambiguity

Equivocation

Using a word with two meanings as if it meant one.

"'Strategic' is doing a lot of work in that sentence — and it's doing two different jobs at once."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Investment' meaning capital expenditure in one slide and emotional commitment in the next.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy memos that sound coherent because the key word shifts meaning quietly.

Ambiguity

Loaded Question

A question with a built-in unproven assumption.

"'When are we going to stop wasting money on this?' Question won."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Why is morale so bad on your team?' assumes the premise.

Why it matters in the room

Frames the room before it deliberates.

Ambiguity

Loaded Language

Words chosen to bias the audience toward a conclusion.

"'Right-sizing' is layoffs in a better suit."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Synergy' replaces 'job cuts'; 'pivot' replaces 'failed strategy.'

Why it matters in the room

Decisions softened past the point where teams understand them.

Definition

Composition Fallacy

What's true of the parts is assumed true of the whole.

"Each ingredient is great. The dish is poison."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Every team is high-performing; the company still misses its number.

Why it matters in the room

Aggregate-level dysfunction missed because the parts are 'fine.'

Definition

Division Fallacy

What's true of the whole is assumed true of the parts.

"The company is innovative. Therefore every meeting is."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Brand attributes mistakenly attributed to every employee or product.

Why it matters in the room

Brand narrative writing checks the org can't cash.

Definition

Begging the Question

Assuming the conclusion in the premise.

"'Obviously we need this.' Wait — by what definition of obvious?"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Strategy decks that assume the bet, then 'validate' it.

Why it matters in the room

Decisions made under the illusion of analysis.

Definition

Moving the Goalposts

Changing success criteria whenever the prior criteria are met.

"We hit the number. Now there's a new number."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Targets quietly redefined after every quarter.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy where 'winning' is permanently one quarter away.

Relevance

Special Pleading

Exempting a case from a rule for no principled reason.

"The rule applies to everyone except, somehow, us."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Our division is different,' said by every division.

Why it matters in the room

Governance erodes one exception at a time.

Relevance

Burden of Proof Shift

Asking the other side to disprove an unsupported claim.

"Prove I'm wrong. (No, that's not how this works.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

'You can't prove the AI is unsafe' as justification for shipping.

Why it matters in the room

Risk programs collapse when burden gets flipped.

Relevance

Fallacy Fallacy

Concluding that because an argument contained a fallacy, its conclusion must be false.

"Bad arguments for true conclusions still happen."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Dismissing a sound recommendation because the person made one logical slip.

Why it matters in the room

Insight discarded for stylistic reasons.

Relevance

Personal Incredulity

I can't imagine how it works, therefore it doesn't.

"'That's impossible' is rarely an argument."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Executives rejecting AI capability based on their personal inability to imagine it.

Why it matters in the room

Investment decisions throttled by imagination, not analysis.

Definition

Middle Ground Fallacy

Assuming the truth must lie between two extremes.

"Splitting the baby works in nursery rhymes; rarely in strategy."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Compromise decisions that satisfy nobody and accomplish less.

Why it matters in the room

Strategic mush manufactured by reflexive 'balance.'

Relevance

Appeal to Nature

If it's 'natural,' it's good.

"Arsenic is natural. So is tetanus."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'It feels more human' offered as a strategic argument.

Why it matters in the room

Decisions rationalized with metaphysics, not metrics.

Relevance

Appeal to Consequences

Believing something is true because of the consequences of its truth.

"If it were true we'd have to act, so let's agree it isn't."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Dismissing risks because acknowledging them would force expensive change.

Why it matters in the room

Boards quietly engineering their own blind spots.

Emotion

Appeal to Emotion

Substituting feeling for argument.

"Manufactured outrage is also outrage."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Closing a strategy debate with a personal anecdote instead of data.

Why it matters in the room

Decisions made on vibes, defended as conviction.

Emotion

Appeal to Fear

Using fear instead of evidence.

"FUD is a feature of every losing competitor's sales motion."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'If we don't move now, we lose forever.'

Why it matters in the room

Urgency manufactured to prevent thinking.

Emotion

Appeal to Pity

Asking for a conclusion based on sympathy rather than logic.

"We worked so hard on this. Therefore it deserves funding."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Effort cited as evidence for value.

Why it matters in the room

Sunk cost wearing a different jacket.

Emotion

Appeal to Spite

Rejecting an argument because of dislike for the source or beneficiary.

"Burn the company before they get their bonus."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Internal politics overriding business logic.

Why it matters in the room

Spite is one of the most consistent line items in the strategy budget.

Statistical

Gambler's Fallacy

Believing past random events affect independent future ones.

"We've missed four quarters; we're due. (You are not.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

Strategy built on emotional pattern-matching rather than data.

Why it matters in the room

Capital allocation around imagined reversion.

Causation

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Continuing because of past investment, not future value.

"We spent $20M. Let's spend $5M more so the $20M wasn't wasted."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Initiative kept alive purely because shutting it down 'wastes' the spend.

Why it matters in the room

Capital and attention trapped in dead initiatives.

Definition

Naturalistic Fallacy

Deriving 'ought' from 'is.'

"Because it happens doesn't mean it should."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Companies always do layoffs in downturns, so we should.'

Why it matters in the room

Strategic abdication dressed as realism.

Definition

Moralistic Fallacy

Deriving 'is' from 'ought.'

"Because it should be doesn't mean it is."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'People should rationally adopt this tool; therefore they will.'

Why it matters in the room

Adoption forecasting built on idealized behavior.

Relevance

Gish Gallop

Burying the room in a flood of weak arguments faster than they can be addressed.

"Quantity is not a substitute for quality — but it does win meetings."

Open full entry →
In the wild

A 78-slide deck that wins by sheer mass.

Why it matters in the room

Decision rigor collapses when speed of speech outruns speed of analysis.

Causation

Galaxy-Brain Reasoning

Stacking so many tenuous links that the conclusion sounds clever.

"Eight bank shots to a foregone conclusion."

Open full entry →
In the wild

A strategy memo arguing for the desired action via seven plausible jumps.

Why it matters in the room

Conclusions held together by narrative friction.

Definition

Reification Fallacy

Treating an abstraction as if it were a concrete thing.

"'The market doesn't want this.' The market is not a person."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Culture decided' — culture doesn't decide.

Why it matters in the room

Accountability dissolved by personifying systems.

Definition

Continuum Fallacy

Because there's no sharp line, no distinction exists.

"Day and night blend at dusk. Therefore there is no day or night."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'You can't define when AI becomes risky, so don't bother trying.'

Why it matters in the room

Risk frameworks killed because perfect lines aren't drawable.

Causation

Slippery Slope (cause/effect form)

Small step → catastrophic outcome, without the intermediate causal links.

"Allow PTO requests on Mondays and the entire company will collapse."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'If we let one team use the AI tool, soon nobody will write anything themselves.'

Why it matters in the room

Reasonable changes blocked by imagined cascades.

Relevance

Two Wrongs Make a Right

Justifying a wrong because someone else also did wrong.

"Their bad behavior is not your blank check."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'They violated the partnership first, so we're allowed to.'

Why it matters in the room

Ethics infrastructure rots under retaliatory logic.

Relevance

Red Herring

Introducing an irrelevant topic to distract from the issue.

"Pivot the question. Win the room. Lose the year."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Pivoting from 'did we hit our number?' to 'look at this exciting pipeline.'

Why it matters in the room

Performance conversations sidetracked by adjacent narratives.

Definition

Definitional Retreat

Quietly redefining a term mid-argument.

"'Strategy' meant one thing on slide three and another on slide seventeen."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Innovation' shifts from 'new products' to 'tweaks to existing ones.'

Why it matters in the room

Strategy clarity dissolves as definitions drift.

Relevance

Argument from Incredulity

I can't believe it; therefore it isn't true.

"Personal disbelief is not market evidence."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Boards rejecting disruption signals on instinct.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy slow to adapt because leadership can't picture the change.

Relevance

Appeal to Common Sense

Common sense says so, therefore it's true.

"Common sense said the earth was flat for most of history."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Dismissing counterintuitive data on instinct.

Why it matters in the room

Discovery atrophies in cultures that lean on 'obviously.'

Relevance

Just Asking Questions (JAQing off)

Implying conclusions through leading questions while disclaiming responsibility.

"'Just asking' is a strategy."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Insinuating doubt about a project via repeated 'questions' that imply its failure.

Why it matters in the room

Quiet sabotage hidden inside Socratic theater.

Definition

Either-Or Trap (more refined false dichotomy)

Constraining the option set to bias the decision.

"Two options is a sales technique, not a strategy."

Open full entry →
In the wild

'Either we acquire them or we lose.' (Also possible: do nothing. Or partner.)

Why it matters in the room

Option-set engineering is more powerful than option-set analysis.

Causation

Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

With this, therefore because of this.

"If two things rise together, congratulations: they rose together."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Sales and marketing spend both went up. Marketing 'caused' sales.

Why it matters in the room

Attribution failures that distort the entire mix model.

Causation

Argument from Final Consequences

Reasoning backward from outcomes to motives.

"It worked, therefore that must have been the plan."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Post-hoc rationalization of luck as strategy.

Why it matters in the room

Mythology replaces decision review.

Statistical

Argument from Personal Experience

n=1 generalized to n=everyone.

"I tried it. It worked. Now you must."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Founder anecdotes overruling pattern data.

Why it matters in the room

Strategy frozen at the founder's personal experience set.

Definition

False Equivalence

Treating two things as comparable when they're not.

"Some things are not the same as some other things."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Comparing an internal pilot to a public launch as if the data is symmetric.

Why it matters in the room

Benchmarking that washes out meaningful distinctions.

Definition

Etymological Fallacy

Insisting on a word's original meaning over its current one.

"Words move on. Sometimes for better."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Debating what 'strategy' means in ancient Greek instead of using it to plan.

Why it matters in the room

Definitional debates that crowd out actual decisions.

Statistical

Cherry-Picked Citations

Quoting only the studies that support the position.

"A bibliography is also an opinion."

Open full entry →
In the wild

Whitepapers that cite only the wins.

Why it matters in the room

Internal research conclusions engineered upstream of analysis.

Ambiguity

Thought-Terminating Cliché

A phrase that ends thought rather than advancing it.

"'It is what it is.' (No, it's whatever we make it.)"

Open full entry →
In the wild

'That's just how things are done here.'

Why it matters in the room

Innovation stalls one cliché at a time.

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