Premortem + Postmortem Pair is imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0547, within the Decision family. The core principle: imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
Scientific Definition
Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.
Plain-English Definition
Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.
Feynman Explanation
Both halves required. One alone is theater.
Core Principle
Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
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Pending editorial review.
Continuous decision improvement.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Both halves required. One alone is theater.
Examples
- Standard operating practice in elite engineering and military planning.
- Continuous decision improvement.
Pending editorial review.
Original analysis from The Incentives Lab — how this element behaves inside real payoff structures.
Why this element matters to incentive design
When this element shows up in a diagnostic, the instinct is to train people out of it. Training rarely moves it. The mechanism underneath it is straightforward: imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward. You can recognize it in the field by its signature: both halves required. One alone is theater. Every element in the Cognition dimension changes the perceived payoff of an action before the action happens, which is exactly where incentive design has leverage.
How it gets exploited
Left undesigned, continuous decision improvement. It is amplified whenever continuous decision improvement. Inside organizations that shows up as continuous decision improvement. The pattern is the same one Goodhart's Law describes: the measurable proxy attracts the effort, and the purpose behind it quietly loses funding.
How the Lab designs around it
The redesign move is to pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes. Measure the behavior, not the sentiment. A survey will tell you how people feel about this; only observed action tells you whether it changed.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Imagine the project failed; explain why.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.
Decisions are constrained by available information, cognitive limits, and time.
Where Premortem + Postmortem Pair is cited in the corpus
Essays, field guides, and diagnostics from The Incentives Lab that apply this element.
- EssayGoodhart's Law in the Real World
How measurable proxies capture judgment.
- EssayThe Perverse Incentives Hiding in Your KPIs
Cognitive shortcuts turned into scorecards.
- EssayAI Agents Inherit Your Incentives
How this element propagates into automated systems.
- CourseIncentives 101
The free ten-part primer on reading a payoff structure.
- ReferenceThe incentive glossary
Definitions for every mental model, bias, and fallacy in the corpus.
- ReferenceThe Periodic Table of Human Behavior
The full 1,267-element map this page belongs to.
Questions about Premortem + Postmortem Pair
- What is Premortem + Postmortem Pair?
- Premortem + Postmortem Pair is imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0547, within the Decision family. The core principle: imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
- What is an example of Premortem + Postmortem Pair?
- Continuous decision improvement. The Incentives Lab catalogs everyday, organizational, and historical instances of this element on its Human Behavior Taxonomy™ page (HBT-COG-0547).
- How is Premortem + Postmortem Pair exploited?
- Continuous decision improvement.
- How do you design around Premortem + Postmortem Pair?
- Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.
- Which behavioral dimension does Premortem + Postmortem Pair belong to?
- Premortem + Postmortem Pair is classified in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™, family "Decision", class "Mental Model". Its permanent identifier is HBT-COG-0547 and its evidence grade is B.