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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0547 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Premortem + Postmortem Pair

Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.

Plain-English Definition

Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.

Feynman Explanation

Both halves required. One alone is theater.

Core Principle

Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Continuous decision improvement.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Both halves required. One alone is theater.

Examples

Everyday
  • Standard operating practice in elite engineering and military planning.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Continuous decision improvement.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Continuous decision improvement.
Amplifying Incentives
Continuous decision improvement.
Org Failure Modes
Continuous decision improvement.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Pair them as a process. Compare predictions to outcomes.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0547 · COG
Premortem + Postmortem Pair
PPRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.