Scientific Definition
Imagine the project failed; explain why.
Plain-English Definition
Imagine the project failed; explain why.
Feynman Explanation
Easier to predict failure than success — and far more useful.
Core Principle
Imagine the project failed; explain why.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Imagine the project failed; explain why.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Reduces planning fallacy and groupthink.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Easier to predict failure than success — and far more useful.
Examples
- Capital decisions stress-tested before commit.
- Reduces planning fallacy and groupthink.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Run on every major commitment as standard process.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Run on every major commitment as standard process.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Imagine the failure beforehand; investigate it afterward.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.
Decisions are constrained by available information, cognitive limits, and time.