Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc is with this, therefore because of this. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0212, within the Causation Fallacy family. The core principle: with this, therefore because of this. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
Scientific Definition
With this, therefore because of this.
Plain-English Definition
With this, therefore because of this.
Feynman Explanation
If two things rise together, congratulations: they rose together.
Core Principle
With this, therefore because of this.
Mechanisms
With this, therefore because of this.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
If two things rise together, congratulations: they rose together.
Examples
- Sales and marketing spend both went up. Marketing 'caused' sales.
- Attribution failures that distort the entire mix model.
Pending editorial review.
Original analysis from The Incentives Lab — how this element behaves inside real payoff structures.
Why this element matters to incentive design
Executives usually notice this element only after it has cost something. By then it looks like a one-off. It is not. The mechanism underneath it is straightforward: with this, therefore because of this. You can recognize it in the field by its signature: if two things rise together, congratulations: they rose together. Every element in the Cognition dimension changes the perceived payoff of an action before the action happens, which is exactly where incentive design has leverage.
How it gets exploited
Left undesigned, attribution failures that distort the entire mix model. It is amplified whenever attribution failures that distort the entire mix model. Inside organizations that shows up as attribution failures that distort the entire mix model. The pattern is the same one Goodhart's Law describes: the measurable proxy attracts the effort, and the purpose behind it quietly loses funding.
How the Lab designs around it
The redesign move is to make the desired behavior observable, remove whatever currently pays for its opposite, and attach the reward to the behavior rather than to the noisy outcome downstream of it. Measure the behavior, not the sentiment. A survey will tell you how people feel about this; only observed action tells you whether it changed.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
Pending editorial review.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
B followed A, therefore A caused B.
If A then B; B happened; therefore A.
Reasoning backward from outcomes to motives.
Treating two things that move together as one causing the other.
If A then B; not A; therefore not B.
Stacking so many tenuous links that the conclusion sounds clever.
Assuming one cause where many are at play.
A small step inevitably leads to extreme consequences.
Small step → catastrophic outcome, without the intermediate causal links.
Attacking the person rather than the argument.
A single story used as proof of a general claim.
It's true because authority says so.
Where Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc is cited in the corpus
Essays, field guides, and diagnostics from The Incentives Lab that apply this element.
- EssayGoodhart's Law in the Real World
How measurable proxies capture judgment.
- EssayThe Perverse Incentives Hiding in Your KPIs
Cognitive shortcuts turned into scorecards.
- ReferenceThe incentive glossary
Definitions for every mental model, bias, and fallacy in the corpus.
- ReferenceThe Periodic Table of Human Behavior
The full 1,267-element map this page belongs to.
Questions about Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
- What is Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?
- Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc is with this, therefore because of this. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0212, within the Causation Fallacy family. The core principle: with this, therefore because of this. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
- What is an example of Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?
- Attribution failures that distort the entire mix model. The Incentives Lab catalogs everyday, organizational, and historical instances of this element on its Human Behavior Taxonomy™ page (HBT-COG-0212).
- How is Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc exploited?
- Attribution failures that distort the entire mix model.
- How do you design around Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?
- Name the behavior you want in observable terms, remove what currently pays for the opposite, attach the reward to the behavior rather than a lagging proxy, and publish how you will detect gaming.
- Which behavioral dimension does Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc belong to?
- Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc is classified in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™, family "Causation Fallacy", class "Logical Fallacy". Its permanent identifier is HBT-COG-0212 and its evidence grade is B.