The Incentives Lab
Civilization Level · Lesson 009

The Quarterly Clock

How public markets traded long-term value for the next earnings call.

The 90-day reporting cycle is the most influential incentive in capitalism. It runs every public boardroom — including yours.

Quarterly guidance turned CEOs into earnings managers. R&D, training, and maintenance — anything that costs today and pays in five years — became a target for the cut.

Stock buybacks emerged as the dominant use of capital because they boost EPS inside the 90-day window without requiring real growth. $942.5B in 2024 alone.

The redesign isn't anti-shareholder. It's longer-cycle shareholder — rolling guidance, capital-allocation transparency, and comp tied to multi-year compounding instead of quarterly EPS.

The Structural Flip

Replace quarterly EPS targets with rolling 3-year operating goals. Watch capital allocation get sane again.