Scientific Definition
Beliefs survive the evidence that should have killed them.
Plain-English Definition
Beliefs survive the evidence that should have killed them.
Feynman Explanation
Some convictions outlive their own data by a decade.
Core Principle
Beliefs survive the evidence that should have killed them.
Mechanisms
Beliefs survive the evidence that should have killed them.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Some convictions outlive their own data by a decade.
Examples
- Continuing to believe a market is hot after every metric says otherwise.
- Strategy frozen against reality because the founding belief is sacred.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Set kill criteria in advance for every belief that drives capital allocation.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Set kill criteria in advance for every belief that drives capital allocation.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.
Contradictory evidence sometimes deepens the original belief.
We hunt for evidence that we were right all along.
Updating beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
Believing people get what they deserve.
Assuming new technology will be adopted faster and more usefully than it will.
Reflexively rejecting evidence that contradicts established norms.
Studying winners while ignoring identical losers.
We defend existing systems even when they harm us.
Evaluating an argument's logic based on whether you agree with the conclusion.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.