Scientific Definition
We hunt for evidence that we were right all along.
Plain-English Definition
We hunt for evidence that we were right all along.
Feynman Explanation
Pre-mortems become rituals to bless decisions already made.
Core Principle
We hunt for evidence that we were right all along.
Mechanisms
We hunt for evidence that we were right all along.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Pre-mortems become rituals to bless decisions already made.
Examples
- A CEO only forwards the McKinsey paragraph that agrees with the strategy.
- Strategy reviews stack the room with people who already agree.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Assign a paid devil's advocate. Reward dissent in public, not in performance reviews.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Assign a paid devil's advocate. Reward dissent in public, not in performance reviews.
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Interactive Mini Network
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Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.
Contradictory evidence sometimes deepens the original belief.
Beliefs survive the evidence that should have killed them.
Updating beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
Believing people get what they deserve.
Assuming new technology will be adopted faster and more usefully than it will.
Reflexively rejecting evidence that contradicts established norms.
Studying winners while ignoring identical losers.
We defend existing systems even when they harm us.
Evaluating an argument's logic based on whether you agree with the conclusion.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.