Scientific Definition
Updating beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
Plain-English Definition
Updating beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
Feynman Explanation
The model is rotting. We'll change it next quarter.
Core Principle
Updating beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
Mechanisms
Updating beliefs too slowly when new evidence arrives.
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Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
The model is rotting. We'll change it next quarter.
Examples
- Strategy unchanged for years despite clear, accumulating disconfirmation.
- Beliefs lag reality by structurally too many quarters.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Pre-define disconfirming evidence and the speed at which it should move your priors.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Pre-define disconfirming evidence and the speed at which it should move your priors.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
A story repeats until it becomes obviously true.
Contradictory evidence sometimes deepens the original belief.
Beliefs survive the evidence that should have killed them.
We hunt for evidence that we were right all along.
Believing people get what they deserve.
Assuming new technology will be adopted faster and more usefully than it will.
Reflexively rejecting evidence that contradicts established norms.
Studying winners while ignoring identical losers.
We defend existing systems even when they harm us.
Evaluating an argument's logic based on whether you agree with the conclusion.
We see bias in others more easily than in ourselves.
Low ability paired with high confidence.