Scientific Definition
We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.
Plain-English Definition
We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.
Feynman Explanation
The decision you can defend in hindsight beats the decision that maximizes EV.
Core Principle
We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The decision you can defend in hindsight beats the decision that maximizes EV.
Examples
- Buying the safer stock to avoid 'I told you so' after a loss.
- Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Separate decision quality from outcome quality in retros. Reward the first.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Separate decision quality from outcome quality in retros. Reward the first.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Choose the option whose worst-case regret is least bad.
Choose the option you'll regret least at 80.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.