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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0576 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Regret Aversion

We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.

Plain-English Definition

We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.

Feynman Explanation

The decision you can defend in hindsight beats the decision that maximizes EV.

Core Principle

We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

We choose to minimize the regret we anticipate — not the expected value.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

The decision you can defend in hindsight beats the decision that maximizes EV.

Examples

Everyday
  • Buying the safer stock to avoid 'I told you so' after a loss.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Separate decision quality from outcome quality in retros. Reward the first.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.
Amplifying Incentives
Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.
Org Failure Modes
Boards and execs systematically under-take asymmetric upside bets.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Separate decision quality from outcome quality in retros. Reward the first.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Separate decision quality from outcome quality in retros. Reward the first.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Separate decision quality from outcome quality in retros. Reward the first.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0576 · COG
Regret Aversion
RARu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.