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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0478 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Minimax Regret

Choose the option whose worst-case regret is least bad.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Choose the option whose worst-case regret is least bad.

Plain-English Definition

Choose the option whose worst-case regret is least bad.

Feynman Explanation

Sometimes the right call is the one you won't regret most.

Core Principle

Choose the option whose worst-case regret is least bad.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Choose the option whose worst-case regret is least bad.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Decisions where survival matters more than upside.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Sometimes the right call is the one you won't regret most.

Examples

Everyday
  • Risk-averse capital allocation.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Decisions where survival matters more than upside.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Use when ruin is on the table.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Decisions where survival matters more than upside.
Amplifying Incentives
Decisions where survival matters more than upside.
Org Failure Modes
Decisions where survival matters more than upside.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Use when ruin is on the table.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Use when ruin is on the table.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Use when ruin is on the table.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0478 · COG
Minimax Regret
MRRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.