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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0558 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Prospect Theory

People value gains and losses asymmetrically, and judge relative to a reference point.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

People value gains and losses asymmetrically, and judge relative to a reference point.

Plain-English Definition

People value gains and losses asymmetrically, and judge relative to a reference point.

Feynman Explanation

We are not rational calculators. We are reference-point refugees.

Core Principle

People value gains and losses asymmetrically, and judge relative to a reference point.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

People value gains and losses asymmetrically, and judge relative to a reference point.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Framing and reference points drive employee and customer behavior.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

We are not rational calculators. We are reference-point refugees.

Examples

Everyday
  • A $100 bonus feels different than a $100 salary difference.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Framing and reference points drive employee and customer behavior.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Design choices around reference points that serve long-term goals.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Framing and reference points drive employee and customer behavior.
Amplifying Incentives
Framing and reference points drive employee and customer behavior.
Org Failure Modes
Framing and reference points drive employee and customer behavior.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Design choices around reference points that serve long-term goals.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Design choices around reference points that serve long-term goals.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Design choices around reference points that serve long-term goals.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0558 · COG
Prospect Theory
PTRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.