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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0524 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Personal Theory of Change

A written model of how your specific leverage produces the outcome you care about.

Strategy·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

A written model of how your specific leverage produces the outcome you care about.

Plain-English Definition

A written model of how your specific leverage produces the outcome you care about.

Feynman Explanation

Without one, 'making a difference' is a feeling, not a strategy.

Core Principle

A written model of how your specific leverage produces the outcome you care about.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

A written model of how your specific leverage produces the outcome you care about.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Founders without a theory of change scale activity instead of impact.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Without one, 'making a difference' is a feeling, not a strategy.

Examples

Everyday
  • Nonprofits use logic models. Operators rarely do — and pay for it in scattered effort.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Founders without a theory of change scale activity instead of impact.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • One page: inputs → leverage → outputs → outcomes → ultimate change. Update annually.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Founders without a theory of change scale activity instead of impact.
Amplifying Incentives
Founders without a theory of change scale activity instead of impact.
Org Failure Modes
Founders without a theory of change scale activity instead of impact.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
One page: inputs → leverage → outputs → outcomes → ultimate change. Update annually.
Diagnostic Questions
  • One page: inputs → leverage → outputs → outcomes → ultimate change. Update annually.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
One page: inputs → leverage → outputs → outcomes → ultimate change. Update annually.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0524 · COG
Personal Theory of Change
PTWL3-Way Life Optimizat…ACAdaptive ChallengeADAdvantageous Diverge…APAgent ProvocateurAOArt of WarAWAsymmetric WarfareBaBackcastingCoCounterinsurgencyCoCounterpropagandaCFCynefin Framework

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.