Scientific Definition
Start from the desired future and work backward to the steps that make it inevitable.
Plain-English Definition
Start from the desired future and work backward to the steps that make it inevitable.
Feynman Explanation
Forecasting extrapolates trends. Backcasting refuses to be limited by them.
Core Principle
Start from the desired future and work backward to the steps that make it inevitable.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Start from the desired future and work backward to the steps that make it inevitable.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Why Amazon writes the press release before building the product.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Forecasting extrapolates trends. Backcasting refuses to be limited by them.
Examples
- The Natural Step's sustainability planning method; also used in Amazon's PR/FAQ working-backwards.
- Why Amazon writes the press release before building the product.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Draft the future state in concrete detail. Then ask: what had to be true 1, 3, 5 years before?
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Draft the future state in concrete detail. Then ask: what had to be true 1, 3, 5 years before?
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).
A problem whose solution requires people to change their values, beliefs, or habits — not just apply expertise.
Holding a different — and correct — set of tools than everyone else.
Someone who incites others to take illegal or rash action, often to expose or discredit them.
Sun Tzu's ancient treatise on strategy, deception, and positioning.
Conflict between belligerents with very different resources and tactics.
Winning the disputed population, not just defeating the visible opponent.
Countering hostile narratives with truthful, well-timed alternatives.
Sort situations into Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, or Confused — each needs a different response.
Eroding the will to act, even when capacity remains.
Munger's principle: the surest way to get something is to deserve it.
An act committed to look like it was done by someone else.