Scientific Definition
Players reason a fixed number of steps ahead about what others will do — and rarely beyond level 2 or 3.
Plain-English Definition
Players reason a fixed number of steps ahead about what others will do — and rarely beyond level 2 or 3.
Feynman Explanation
The 'beauty contest' wins not at zero, but a few steps short of it.
Core Principle
Players reason a fixed number of steps ahead about what others will do — and rarely beyond level 2 or 3.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Players reason a fixed number of steps ahead about what others will do — and rarely beyond level 2 or 3.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pricing wars, auctions, negotiation, competitive strategy.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The 'beauty contest' wins not at zero, but a few steps short of it.
Examples
- Camerer's behavioral game theory: humans don't reach Nash; they reach 'one level past the average opponent.'
- Pricing wars, auctions, negotiation, competitive strategy.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Model the actual cognitive depth of the other side. Not infinite recursion — usually two.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Model the actual cognitive depth of the other side. Not infinite recursion — usually two.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).
A problem whose solution requires people to change their values, beliefs, or habits — not just apply expertise.
Holding a different — and correct — set of tools than everyone else.
Someone who incites others to take illegal or rash action, often to expose or discredit them.
Sun Tzu's ancient treatise on strategy, deception, and positioning.
Conflict between belligerents with very different resources and tactics.
Start from the desired future and work backward to the steps that make it inevitable.
Winning the disputed population, not just defeating the visible opponent.
Countering hostile narratives with truthful, well-timed alternatives.
Sort situations into Clear, Complicated, Complex, Chaotic, or Confused — each needs a different response.
Eroding the will to act, even when capacity remains.
Munger's principle: the surest way to get something is to deserve it.