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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0346 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Gettier Problem

Justified true belief isn't always knowledge — luck can produce true beliefs from defective reasoning.

Logic·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Justified true belief isn't always knowledge — luck can produce true beliefs from defective reasoning.

Plain-English Definition

Justified true belief isn't always knowledge — luck can produce true beliefs from defective reasoning.

Feynman Explanation

Being right by accident isn't the same as knowing. Your process matters even when your answer is correct.

Core Principle

Justified true belief isn't always knowledge — luck can produce true beliefs from defective reasoning.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Justified true belief isn't always knowledge — luck can produce true beliefs from defective reasoning.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Why post-hoc 'we made the right call' analysis is dangerous — outcome can mask broken process.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Being right by accident isn't the same as knowing. Your process matters even when your answer is correct.

Examples

Everyday
  • Edmund Gettier's 1963 three-page paper that overturned 2,000 years of epistemology.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Why post-hoc 'we made the right call' analysis is dangerous — outcome can mask broken process.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Evaluate decisions on process quality, separately from outcome quality.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Why post-hoc 'we made the right call' analysis is dangerous — outcome can mask broken process.
Amplifying Incentives
Why post-hoc 'we made the right call' analysis is dangerous — outcome can mask broken process.
Org Failure Modes
Why post-hoc 'we made the right call' analysis is dangerous — outcome can mask broken process.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Evaluate decisions on process quality, separately from outcome quality.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Evaluate decisions on process quality, separately from outcome quality.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Evaluate decisions on process quality, separately from outcome quality.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0346 · COG
Gettier Problem
GPBOBurden of ProofCMCategory MistakeIGIs-Ought GapMPModus PonensMTModus TollensNVNecessary vs Suffici…RAReductio ad AbsurdumRu10/10/10 RuleWL3-Way Life Optimizat…APAbilene Paradox

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Same family
HBT-COG-0117Burden of Proof

Whoever makes the positive claim carries the obligation to support it. Absence of disproof isn't proof.

Same family
HBT-COG-0121Category Mistake

Treating one kind of thing as if it belonged to a different ontological category.

Same family
HBT-COG-0414Is-Ought Gap

You can't derive an 'ought' (value claim) from an 'is' (factual claim) without a smuggled premise.

Same family
HBT-COG-0483Modus Ponens

If P then Q. P. Therefore Q. The most basic valid inference move in formal logic.

Same family
HBT-COG-0484Modus Tollens

If P then Q. Not Q. Therefore not P. The logic behind every falsification test.

Same family
HBT-COG-0493Necessary vs Sufficient

Necessary = required for X. Sufficient = enough on its own for X. Conflating them is a common error.

Same family
HBT-COG-0570Reductio ad Absurdum

Assume the opposite of what you want to prove. Derive a contradiction. The opposite must be false.

Same domain
HBT-COG-0065Asian Disease Problem

Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.

Same domain
HBT-COG-000110/10/10 Rule

How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?

Same domain
HBT-COG-00023-Way Life Optimization

Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).

Same domain
HBT-COG-0003Abilene Paradox

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Same domain
HBT-COG-0004Absent-Mindedness

Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.