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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0484 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Modus Tollens

If P then Q. Not Q. Therefore not P. The logic behind every falsification test.

Logic·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

If P then Q. Not Q. Therefore not P. The logic behind every falsification test.

Plain-English Definition

If P then Q. Not Q. Therefore not P. The logic behind every falsification test.

Feynman Explanation

Science doesn't prove. It refuses to be refuted yet.

Core Principle

If P then Q. Not Q. Therefore not P. The logic behind every falsification test.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

If P then Q. Not Q. Therefore not P. The logic behind every falsification test.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

How you should structure every product hypothesis test.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Science doesn't prove. It refuses to be refuted yet.

Examples

Everyday
  • Foundational in Popperian falsificationism; standard in The Philosopher's Toolkit.
Modern (Organizational)
  • How you should structure every product hypothesis test.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Specify what observation would force you to abandon the claim, in advance.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
How you should structure every product hypothesis test.
Amplifying Incentives
How you should structure every product hypothesis test.
Org Failure Modes
How you should structure every product hypothesis test.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Specify what observation would force you to abandon the claim, in advance.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Specify what observation would force you to abandon the claim, in advance.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Specify what observation would force you to abandon the claim, in advance.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0484 · COG
Modus Tollens
MTBOBurden of ProofCMCategory MistakeGPGettier ProblemIGIs-Ought GapMPModus PonensNVNecessary vs Suffici…RAReductio ad AbsurdumRu10/10/10 RuleWL3-Way Life Optimizat…APAbilene Paradox

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Same family
HBT-COG-0483Modus Ponens

If P then Q. P. Therefore Q. The most basic valid inference move in formal logic.

Same family
HBT-COG-0117Burden of Proof

Whoever makes the positive claim carries the obligation to support it. Absence of disproof isn't proof.

Same family
HBT-COG-0121Category Mistake

Treating one kind of thing as if it belonged to a different ontological category.

Same family
HBT-COG-0346Gettier Problem

Justified true belief isn't always knowledge — luck can produce true beliefs from defective reasoning.

Same family
HBT-COG-0414Is-Ought Gap

You can't derive an 'ought' (value claim) from an 'is' (factual claim) without a smuggled premise.

Same family
HBT-COG-0493Necessary vs Sufficient

Necessary = required for X. Sufficient = enough on its own for X. Conflating them is a common error.

Same family
HBT-COG-0570Reductio ad Absurdum

Assume the opposite of what you want to prove. Derive a contradiction. The opposite must be false.

Same domain
HBT-COG-000110/10/10 Rule

How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?

Same domain
HBT-COG-00023-Way Life Optimization

Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).

Same domain
HBT-COG-0003Abilene Paradox

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Same domain
HBT-COG-0004Absent-Mindedness

Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.

Same domain
HBT-COG-0005Abstractions

Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.