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The Incentives Lab
HBT-SOC-0003 · Dimension SOC · Social

Barbell Strategy

Combine extreme safety with extreme risk; avoid the middle.

Strategy·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Combine extreme safety with extreme risk; avoid the middle.

Plain-English Definition

Combine extreme safety with extreme risk; avoid the middle.

Feynman Explanation

The middle is where you die.

Core Principle

Combine extreme safety with extreme risk; avoid the middle.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Combine extreme safety with extreme risk; avoid the middle.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Portfolio construction and innovation funding.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

The middle is where you die.

Examples

Everyday
  • 90% in cash, 10% in venture; almost nothing in 'medium-risk medium-return.'
Modern (Organizational)
  • Portfolio construction and innovation funding.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Audit your portfolio for the slow death of medium.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Portfolio construction and innovation funding.
Amplifying Incentives
Portfolio construction and innovation funding.
Org Failure Modes
Portfolio construction and innovation funding.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Audit your portfolio for the slow death of medium.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Audit your portfolio for the slow death of medium.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Audit your portfolio for the slow death of medium.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-SOC-0003 · SOC
Barbell Strategy
BSBGBehavioral Game TheoryBGBlotto GamesCoCooperationESExponential StrategyGTGame TheoryPDPrisoner's DilemmaSMStrategy MapTFTit for TatViVision-Strategy-Tact…ZGZero-Sum Game

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.