Scientific Definition
Predicting how we will feel in the future, usually inaccurately.
Plain-English Definition
Predicting how we will feel in the future, usually inaccurately.
Feynman Explanation
We are terrible weather forecasters for our own emotions.
Core Principle
Predicting how we will feel in the future, usually inaccurately.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Predicting how we will feel in the future, usually inaccurately.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Retention bonuses and titles are overvalued because of this.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
We are terrible weather forecasters for our own emotions.
Examples
- Assuming a promotion will make us happy for years; it lasts months.
- Retention bonuses and titles are overvalued because of this.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Survey people who already made the choice you are considering.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Survey people who already made the choice you are considering.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Emotional states distort cognition and decision-making.
Dacher Keltner's research: the emotion of encountering vastness reliably reduces self-focus and inflammation, and increases prosociality.
The drive to explore and understand for its own sake.
When the limbic system overrides higher cognition and behavior follows ancient circuits, not chosen values.
The capacity to recognize, understand, and manage emotions — your own and others'.
Negative emotions fade faster than positive ones.
A strategy to influence behavior by amplifying fear and uncertainty.
Effects of an intervention spread to other areas beyond the intended target.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).
A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.