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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0599 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Second-Order Thinking

Ask 'and then what?' — twice.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Ask 'and then what?' — twice.

Plain-English Definition

Ask 'and then what?' — twice.

Feynman Explanation

First-order: feels great. Second-order: explains why your industry is now broken.

Core Principle

Ask 'and then what?' — twice.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Ask 'and then what?' — twice.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Forecasting how today's policy mutates incentives over time.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

First-order: feels great. Second-order: explains why your industry is now broken.

Examples

Everyday
  • Quarterly bonuses make this quarter great and erode the next five.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Forecasting how today's policy mutates incentives over time.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Pre-mortem every major decision two and three orders out.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Forecasting how today's policy mutates incentives over time.
Amplifying Incentives
Forecasting how today's policy mutates incentives over time.
Org Failure Modes
Forecasting how today's policy mutates incentives over time.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Pre-mortem every major decision two and three orders out.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Pre-mortem every major decision two and three orders out.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Pre-mortem every major decision two and three orders out.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0599 · COG
Second-Order Thinking
STRu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.