Possible Selves is vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0536, within the Identity family. The core principle: vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
Scientific Definition
Vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort.
Plain-English Definition
Vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort.
Feynman Explanation
Hope and dread are both possible selves, doing the same job.
Core Principle
Vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Talent development as possible-self construction.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Hope and dread are both possible selves, doing the same job.
Examples
- Career programs that show 'people three steps ahead of you' outperform abstract pathways.
- Talent development as possible-self construction.
Pending editorial review.
Original analysis from The Incentives Lab — how this element behaves inside real payoff structures.
Why this element matters to incentive design
When this element shows up in a diagnostic, the instinct is to train people out of it. Training rarely moves it. The mechanism underneath it is straightforward: vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort. You can recognize it in the field by its signature: hope and dread are both possible selves, doing the same job. Every element in the Cognition dimension changes the perceived payoff of an action before the action happens, which is exactly where incentive design has leverage.
How it gets exploited
Left undesigned, talent development as possible-self construction. It is amplified whenever talent development as possible-self construction. Inside organizations that shows up as talent development as possible-self construction. The pattern is the same one Goodhart's Law describes: the measurable proxy attracts the effort, and the purpose behind it quietly loses funding.
How the Lab designs around it
The redesign move is to make the next-rung self visible, plural, and reachable. Design against it the way you would design against a known failure mode — assume it will appear, and price the exploit before someone finds it.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Make the next-rung self visible, plural, and reachable.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Make the next-rung self visible, plural, and reachable.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Basics first (health/finances), then depth (mastery/impact), then altruism (widening circle).
A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
We attribute our own actions to situations but others' actions to their character.
Your capacity to learn, unlearn, and relearn faster than the environment changes.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
A problem whose solution requires people to change their values, beliefs, or habits — not just apply expertise.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Holding a different — and correct — set of tools than everyone else.
Where Possible Selves is cited in the corpus
Essays, field guides, and diagnostics from The Incentives Lab that apply this element.
- EssayGoodhart's Law in the Real World
How measurable proxies capture judgment.
- EssayThe Perverse Incentives Hiding in Your KPIs
Cognitive shortcuts turned into scorecards.
- EssayAI Agents Inherit Your Incentives
How this element propagates into automated systems.
- ReferenceThe Periodic Table of Human Behavior
The full 1,267-element map this page belongs to.
- ReferenceThe incentive glossary
Definitions for every mental model, bias, and fallacy in the corpus.
Questions about Possible Selves
- What is Possible Selves?
- Possible Selves is vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort. It sits in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™ as element HBT-COG-0536, within the Identity family. The core principle: vivid images of who we could become drive present-day effort. In incentive terms, it matters because it changes the payoff people perceive before they choose — which means it can be designed for, or exploited.
- What is an example of Possible Selves?
- Talent development as possible-self construction. The Incentives Lab catalogs everyday, organizational, and historical instances of this element on its Human Behavior Taxonomy™ page (HBT-COG-0536).
- How is Possible Selves exploited?
- Talent development as possible-self construction.
- How do you design around Possible Selves?
- Make the next-rung self visible, plural, and reachable.
- Which behavioral dimension does Possible Selves belong to?
- Possible Selves is classified in the Cognition dimension (COG) of the Human Behavior Taxonomy™, family "Identity", class "Mental Model". Its permanent identifier is HBT-COG-0536 and its evidence grade is B.