Scientific Definition
Intuition is trustworthy only when the domain is regular, practice is plentiful, and feedback is fast.
Plain-English Definition
Intuition is trustworthy only when the domain is regular, practice is plentiful, and feedback is fast.
Feynman Explanation
A weatherman's hunch is signal. A pundit's hunch is theater.
Core Principle
Intuition is trustworthy only when the domain is regular, practice is plentiful, and feedback is fast.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Intuition is trustworthy only when the domain is regular, practice is plentiful, and feedback is fast.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Use 'gut' inside regular + fast-feedback domains. Use process everywhere else.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
A weatherman's hunch is signal. A pundit's hunch is theater.
Examples
- Chess masters and firefighters develop true intuition. Long-range geopolitical forecasters generally don't.
- Use 'gut' inside regular + fast-feedback domains. Use process everywhere else.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Tag every domain you operate in by these three axes before trusting any intuition inside it.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Tag every domain you operate in by these three axes before trusting any intuition inside it.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Criteria for a workable outcome: stated positively, in your control, sensory-specific, ecological, and worth the cost.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.
Decisions are constrained by available information, cognitive limits, and time.