Scientific Definition
In a cold state, we systematically underestimate how a hot state will hijack us.
Plain-English Definition
In a cold state, we systematically underestimate how a hot state will hijack us.
Feynman Explanation
Sober predictions about drunk behavior are always wrong.
Core Principle
In a cold state, we systematically underestimate how a hot state will hijack us.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
In a cold state, we systematically underestimate how a hot state will hijack us.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Calm-room strategy survives contact with the angry-customer, panicked-board reality poorly.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Sober predictions about drunk behavior are always wrong.
Examples
- Patients underestimate how much pain will change their treatment preferences.
- Calm-room strategy survives contact with the angry-customer, panicked-board reality poorly.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Pre-commit to rules now for the hot state later. Don't decide in the moment.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Pre-commit to rules now for the hot state later. Don't decide in the moment.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.
Decisions are constrained by available information, cognitive limits, and time.
The ability to focus on one voice in a noisy environment.