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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0326 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Focusing Effect

We overweight one aspect of an event when predicting its impact.

Decision·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

We overweight one aspect of an event when predicting its impact.

Plain-English Definition

We overweight one aspect of an event when predicting its impact.

Feynman Explanation

We think the raise will change everything. It changes the commute.

Core Principle

We overweight one aspect of an event when predicting its impact.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

We overweight one aspect of an event when predicting its impact.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Predictions focus on salient features and miss the daily reality.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

We think the raise will change everything. It changes the commute.

Examples

Everyday
  • Employees overestimate how much salary affects job satisfaction.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Predictions focus on salient features and miss the daily reality.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Ask people who already experienced the outcome what mattered most.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Predictions focus on salient features and miss the daily reality.
Amplifying Incentives
Predictions focus on salient features and miss the daily reality.
Org Failure Modes
Predictions focus on salient features and miss the daily reality.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Ask people who already experienced the outcome what mattered most.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Ask people who already experienced the outcome what mattered most.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Ask people who already experienced the outcome what mattered most.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0326 · COG
Focusing Effect
FERu10/10/10 RuleAbAbsent-MindednessABAlternative BlindnessAPAlternative PathsAPAnalysis ParalysisAnAnchoringADAsian Disease ProblemABAttentional BiasABAutomation BiasBEBezold Effect

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.