Scientific Definition
Predicting more extreme outcomes than actually occur.
Plain-English Definition
Predicting more extreme outcomes than actually occur.
Feynman Explanation
The best case is always shinier in the imagination.
Core Principle
Predicting more extreme outcomes than actually occur.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Predicting more extreme outcomes than actually occur.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Hype cycles are built on exaggerated expectations.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The best case is always shinier in the imagination.
Examples
- Forecasting a new product will be a blockbuster when most launches are modest.
- Hype cycles are built on exaggerated expectations.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Compare forecasts to the base rate of similar launches.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Compare forecasts to the base rate of similar launches.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.
Decisions are constrained by available information, cognitive limits, and time.
The ability to focus on one voice in a noisy environment.