Scientific Definition
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Plain-English Definition
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Feynman Explanation
History is written by the winners of paths not taken.
Core Principle
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Outcomes that could have happened but did not.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Success narratives ignore the luck of the path taken.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
History is written by the winners of paths not taken.
Examples
- A risky bet succeeds and is called genius; the same bet could have failed.
- Success narratives ignore the luck of the path taken.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Record the counterfactuals before the outcome is known.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Record the counterfactuals before the outcome is known.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Forgetting to compare an offer with the next-best alternative.
How will I feel about this in 10 minutes / 10 months / 10 years?
Inattention or forgetfulness caused by low attention, hyperfocus, or distraction.
Overthinking a situation so that decision-making stalls.
The first number on the table silently sets the range for every number after it.
Tversky & Kahneman's classic: identical outcomes flip from 'risk averse' to 'risk seeking' when framed as lives saved vs. lives lost.
Our perception is shaped by what we selectively pay attention to.
Favoring suggestions from automated systems over conflicting human judgment.
A color appears different depending on adjacent colors.
Decisions are constrained by available information, cognitive limits, and time.
The ability to focus on one voice in a noisy environment.
Binding the future self with a present cost-of-defection to overcome impulse and inertia.