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The Incentives Lab
HBT-TIM-0011 · Dimension TIM · Time

Three Horizons

H1 (managing the present) + H2 (transition mechanisms) + H3 (transformative futures) held simultaneously.

Strategy·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

H1 (managing the present) + H2 (transition mechanisms) + H3 (transformative futures) held simultaneously.

Plain-English Definition

H1 (managing the present) + H2 (transition mechanisms) + H3 (transformative futures) held simultaneously.

Feynman Explanation

Most organizations are 100% H1 and call themselves innovative.

Core Principle

H1 (managing the present) + H2 (transition mechanisms) + H3 (transformative futures) held simultaneously.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

H1 (managing the present) + H2 (transition mechanisms) + H3 (transformative futures) held simultaneously.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Portfolios concentrated in H1 die slowly. Portfolios all in H3 die quickly.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Most organizations are 100% H1 and call themselves innovative.

Examples

Everyday
  • Bill Sharpe's foresight framework, used at IFF and across UK futures practice.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Portfolios concentrated in H1 die slowly. Portfolios all in H3 die quickly.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Allocate explicit time, money, and people across all three horizons every planning cycle.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Portfolios concentrated in H1 die slowly. Portfolios all in H3 die quickly.
Amplifying Incentives
Portfolios concentrated in H1 die slowly. Portfolios all in H3 die quickly.
Org Failure Modes
Portfolios concentrated in H1 die slowly. Portfolios all in H3 die quickly.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Allocate explicit time, money, and people across all three horizons every planning cycle.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Allocate explicit time, money, and people across all three horizons every planning cycle.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Allocate explicit time, money, and people across all three horizons every planning cycle.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-TIM-0011 · TIM
Three Horizons
THCoCompoundingDRDiscount RateFSFuture Self ContinuityHaHabitKHKeystone HabitMVMaker vs. Manager TimePDPath DependenceQDQuasi-Hyperbolic (β-…RSRepresentational Sys…RHRepresentativeness H…

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.