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The Incentives Lab
HBT-INC-0132 · Dimension INC · Incentives

Forecast Sandbagging

Sales forecasts under-set to ensure attainment bonus.

Corporate Perverse Pattern·Perverse Incentive·Grade C·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Sales forecasts under-set to ensure attainment bonus.

Plain-English Definition

Sales forecasts under-set to ensure attainment bonus.

Feynman Explanation

Predict the easy number. Beat the easy number. Get paid.

Core Principle

Sales forecasts under-set to ensure attainment bonus.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Sales forecasts under-set to ensure attainment bonus.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Forecast quality degraded by comp design.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Pending editorial review.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Predict the easy number. Beat the easy number. Get paid.

Examples

Everyday
  • Pipeline forecasting across nearly every salesforce.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Forecast quality degraded by comp design.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Decouple forecast accuracy from quota attainment in comp.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
C (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
4 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Forecast quality degraded by comp design.
Amplifying Incentives
Forecast quality degraded by comp design.
Org Failure Modes
Forecast quality degraded by comp design.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Decouple forecast accuracy from quota attainment in comp.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Decouple forecast accuracy from quota attainment in comp.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Decouple forecast accuracy from quota attainment in comp.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-INC-0132 · INC
Forecast Sandbagging
FSAEAcquisition Earn-OutsAMAcquisition-Only Mar…ACAggressive Cost-Cutt…BSBonus Structure Game…BHBoomerang Hire PremiumCPCEO Pay-for-Stock-Pr…EMEmpire-Building M&AGAGrowth at All CostsHAHeadcount as StatusIAInnovation Award Dis…

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.