Scientific Definition
Cherry-picking data to fit a pattern after the fact.
Plain-English Definition
Cherry-picking data to fit a pattern after the fact.
Feynman Explanation
Draw the target around the bullet holes and call yourself a marksman.
Core Principle
Cherry-picking data to fit a pattern after the fact.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Cherry-picking data to fit a pattern after the fact.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Post-hoc pattern finding is not prediction.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Draw the target around the bullet holes and call yourself a marksman.
Examples
- Highlighting a strategy that worked in one region while ignoring the regions where it failed.
- Post-hoc pattern finding is not prediction.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Test patterns on new data and require pre-registration.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Test patterns on new data and require pre-registration.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Using personal stories or isolated examples instead of evidence.
Concluding that a claim is false because the argument for it is flawed.
Assuming qualities of one thing transfer to another because they are associated.
Drawing conclusions about individuals from group-level data.
Assuming something exists because we can name or define it.
Relying solely on metrics that are easily quantified while ignoring what matters.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Assuming that if one option is true, another must be false, when both can be true.
Presuming a purposeful actor behind events that may have no actor at all.
What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.