Scientific Definition
Imagining what could have happened instead of what did.
Plain-English Definition
Imagining what could have happened instead of what did.
Feynman Explanation
Strategy is comparison to what didn't happen.
Core Principle
Imagining what could have happened instead of what did.
Mechanisms
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Imagining what could have happened instead of what did.
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Counterfactuals are how we separate luck from skill.
Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Strategy is comparison to what didn't happen.
Examples
- 'Without that pivot, we'd have run out of cash six months later.'
- Counterfactuals are how we separate luck from skill.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Document counterfactuals before outcomes are known.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Document counterfactuals before outcomes are known.
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Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Reasoning from foundational truths rather than from analogy or convention.
Expecting change to happen at a constant rate.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Assuming that if one option is true, another must be false, when both can be true.
Presuming a purposeful actor behind events that may have no actor at all.
What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.
A finite set of well-defined instructions for solving a problem or performing a computation.
Every model simplifies reality; some are still useful.
Researchers favor conclusions aligned with their school, team, or sponsor.
Using personal stories or isolated examples instead of evidence.