Scientific Definition
Expecting change to happen at a constant rate.
Plain-English Definition
Expecting change to happen at a constant rate.
Feynman Explanation
The future is not a straight line from the past.
Core Principle
Expecting change to happen at a constant rate.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Expecting change to happen at a constant rate.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Linear projections miss compounding, saturation, and shocks.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
The future is not a straight line from the past.
Examples
- Assuming revenue grows by the same percentage every quarter.
- Linear projections miss compounding, saturation, and shocks.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Model nonlinear scenarios, including S-curves and step changes.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Model nonlinear scenarios, including S-curves and step changes.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Imagining what could have happened instead of what did.
Reasoning from foundational truths rather than from analogy or convention.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Assuming that if one option is true, another must be false, when both can be true.
Presuming a purposeful actor behind events that may have no actor at all.
What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.
A finite set of well-defined instructions for solving a problem or performing a computation.
Every model simplifies reality; some are still useful.
Researchers favor conclusions aligned with their school, team, or sponsor.
Using personal stories or isolated examples instead of evidence.