Scientific Definition
Aggregated independent judgments can be more accurate than individual experts.
Plain-English Definition
Aggregated independent judgments can be more accurate than individual experts.
Feynman Explanation
A thousand guesses average closer to the truth than one expert guess.
Core Principle
Aggregated independent judgments can be more accurate than individual experts.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Aggregated independent judgments can be more accurate than individual experts.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Diverse, independent opinions improve forecasting.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
A thousand guesses average closer to the truth than one expert guess.
Examples
- Prediction markets forecast elections better than pundits.
- Diverse, independent opinions improve forecasting.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Aggregate judgments before group discussion to avoid herding.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Aggregate judgments before group discussion to avoid herding.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
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Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.
Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
We attribute our own actions to situations but others' actions to their character.
We favor people who are similar to us or who like us.
Sacrificing for others without expecting a personal reward.
Masking the sponsors of a message to make it appear grassroots.
Disagreement grows more extreme as the parties think more about the issue.
Systematic errors in explaining the causes of behavior — yours or others'.
We accept vague, general statements as personally meaningful.
Adding the word 'because' (with any reason) increases compliance dramatically.
Behaviors spread through groups via observation and imitation.
We come to like people we've done a favor for, more than people who've helped us.