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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0668 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Theory of Mind

Modeling what others think, want, and will do.

Social·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Modeling what others think, want, and will do.

Plain-English Definition

Modeling what others think, want, and will do.

Feynman Explanation

Most failed plans assumed the other side didn't have a strategy.

Core Principle

Modeling what others think, want, and will do.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Modeling what others think, want, and will do.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Stakeholder management.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Most failed plans assumed the other side didn't have a strategy.

Examples

Everyday
  • Sales, leadership, negotiation, parenting.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Stakeholder management.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Map the room before walking into it.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Stakeholder management.
Amplifying Incentives
Stakeholder management.
Org Failure Modes
Stakeholder management.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Map the room before walking into it.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Map the room before walking into it.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Map the room before walking into it.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0668 · COG
Theory of Mind
TOAPAbilene ParadoxADActon's DictumABActor-Observer BiasALAffinity / Liking BiasAlAltruismAsAstroturfingAPAttitude PolarizationABAttribution BiasBEBarnum EffectBJBecause Justification

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.