Scientific Definition
Solve forward by asking how to fail.
Plain-English Definition
Solve forward by asking how to fail.
Feynman Explanation
Don't ask 'how do we win?' Ask 'how would we guarantee we lose?' Then avoid that.
Core Principle
Solve forward by asking how to fail.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Solve forward by asking how to fail.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pre-mortems and stress-tests on flagship initiatives.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Don't ask 'how do we win?' Ask 'how would we guarantee we lose?' Then avoid that.
Examples
- Charlie Munger: 'All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I never go there.'
- Pre-mortems and stress-tests on flagship initiatives.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Run an 'evil twin' exercise: how would a saboteur kill this plan?
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Run an 'evil twin' exercise: how would a saboteur kill this plan?
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Assuming that if one option is true, another must be false, when both can be true.
Presuming a purposeful actor behind events that may have no actor at all.
What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.
A finite set of well-defined instructions for solving a problem or performing a computation.
Every model simplifies reality; some are still useful.
Researchers favor conclusions aligned with their school, team, or sponsor.
Using personal stories or isolated examples instead of evidence.
Claiming something is true or better because most people believe it.
Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.