Scientific Definition
Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you account for Hofstadter's Law.
Plain-English Definition
Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you account for Hofstadter's Law.
Feynman Explanation
Projects are always late. Even the ones you pad.
Core Principle
Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you account for Hofstadter's Law.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
Everything takes longer than you expect, even when you account for Hofstadter's Law.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Planning fallacy is recursive.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Projects are always late. Even the ones you pad.
Examples
- A product launch is delayed despite generous timelines.
- Planning fallacy is recursive.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Use reference-class forecasting and add buffers that are explicitly tracked.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Use reference-class forecasting and add buffers that are explicitly tracked.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Combining substances to create a new material stronger than its parts.
A single constraint limits the throughput of an entire system.
A system's throughput is constrained by its single slowest step.
Small visible disorders signal that bigger ones will be tolerated.
Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later.
Adding people to a late project makes it later.
A substance that speeds up a reaction without being consumed.
Nonlinear systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions.
Inputs combine under conditions to produce new outputs — sometimes irreversibly.
Software architecture mirrors org structure.
Working together has a cost that scales with the number of people.
The threshold at which a system becomes self-sustaining.