Scientific Definition
A hidden variable that influences both supposed cause and supposed effect.
Plain-English Definition
A hidden variable that influences both supposed cause and supposed effect.
Feynman Explanation
Ice cream and drowning correlate. Summer is the confounder.
Core Principle
A hidden variable that influences both supposed cause and supposed effect.
Mechanisms
Pending editorial review.
A hidden variable that influences both supposed cause and supposed effect.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Most retention 'drivers' are confounded with cohort selection.
Inputs (Triggers)
Pending editorial review.
Outputs (Behaviors)
Pending editorial review.
Behavioral Signature
Ice cream and drowning correlate. Summer is the confounder.
Examples
- 'Customers who use feature X retain better' — but they were already power users.
- Most retention 'drivers' are confounded with cohort selection.
Pending editorial review.
Famous Experiments
Pending editorial review.
Design Principles
- Test causally, not correlationally. Control for cohorts and timing.
Measurement Approaches
Pending editorial review.
Evidence
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Test causally, not correlationally. Control for cohorts and timing.
Pending editorial review.
Pending editorial review.
Interactive Mini Network
Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.
Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Assuming that if one option is true, another must be false, when both can be true.
Presuming a purposeful actor behind events that may have no actor at all.
What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.
A finite set of well-defined instructions for solving a problem or performing a computation.
Every model simplifies reality; some are still useful.
Researchers favor conclusions aligned with their school, team, or sponsor.
Using personal stories or isolated examples instead of evidence.
Claiming something is true or better because most people believe it.
Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.