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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0145 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Circle of Competence

Know the perimeter of what you actually know.

Reasoning·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

Know the perimeter of what you actually know.

Plain-English Definition

Know the perimeter of what you actually know.

Feynman Explanation

Most disasters live just beyond a leader's circle of competence.

Core Principle

Know the perimeter of what you actually know.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

Know the perimeter of what you actually know.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Saying no to opportunities outside genuine expertise.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

Most disasters live just beyond a leader's circle of competence.

Examples

Everyday
  • Buffett's refusal to invest in tech for decades.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Saying no to opportunities outside genuine expertise.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Annual: write down what you know cold, what you sort-of know, what you don't.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Saying no to opportunities outside genuine expertise.
Amplifying Incentives
Saying no to opportunities outside genuine expertise.
Org Failure Modes
Saying no to opportunities outside genuine expertise.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Annual: write down what you know cold, what you sort-of know, what you don't.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Annual: write down what you know cold, what you sort-of know, what you don't.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Annual: write down what you know cold, what you sort-of know, what you don't.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0145 · COG
Circle of Competence
COAbAbstractionsABAdaptive BiasABAdditive BiasAAAffirming a DisjunctADAgent DetectionARAlder's RazorAlAlgorithmsAMAll Models Are WrongABAllegiance BiasAFAnecdotal Fallacy

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.