Scientific Definition
Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.
Plain-English Definition
Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.
Feynman Explanation
Probably true is not the same as true.
Core Principle
Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.
Mechanisms
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Assuming something is true because it is probable or possible.
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Strategic plans confuse possibility with probability.
Inputs (Triggers)
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Outputs (Behaviors)
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Behavioral Signature
Probably true is not the same as true.
Examples
- 'This market will probably grow, so we should enter it.'
- Strategic plans confuse possibility with probability.
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Famous Experiments
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Design Principles
- Distinguish possible, probable, and proven before betting.
Measurement Approaches
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Evidence
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The Perverse Incentive Lens™
How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.
- Distinguish possible, probable, and proven before betting.
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Interactive Mini Network
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Knowledge Graph Neighbors
Auto-linked to the rest of the Human Behavior Taxonomy by family, domain, dimension, and shared keywords.
Claiming something is true or better because most people believe it.
Deriving general rules from specific examples; the leap from instance to concept.
The brain evolved to reason adaptively, not always truthfully, to reduce the cost of errors.
We solve problems by adding, even when subtracting would be better.
Assuming that if one option is true, another must be false, when both can be true.
Presuming a purposeful actor behind events that may have no actor at all.
What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating.
A finite set of well-defined instructions for solving a problem or performing a computation.
Every model simplifies reality; some are still useful.
Researchers favor conclusions aligned with their school, team, or sponsor.
Using personal stories or isolated examples instead of evidence.
Using an authority's opinion as evidence, regardless of its merits.