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The Incentives Lab
HBT-COG-0003 · Dimension COG · Cognition

Abilene Paradox

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Social·Mental Model·Grade B·draft· enriching…

Scientific Definition

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Plain-English Definition

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Feynman Explanation

The road to collective disaster is paved with polite assumptions.

Core Principle

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Mechanisms

Psychological

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Economic

A group decides on a course of action that nobody actually wants, because everyone assumes others prefer it.

Neurological

Pending editorial review.

Evolutionary

Pending editorial review.

Sociological

Pending editorial review.

Computational

Pending editorial review.

Systems

Watch for consensus that nobody privately supports.

Inputs (Triggers)

Pending editorial review.

Outputs (Behaviors)

Pending editorial review.

Behavioral Signature

The road to collective disaster is paved with polite assumptions.

Examples

Everyday
  • A team agrees to a painful relocation because each person thinks the others want it.
Modern (Organizational)
  • Watch for consensus that nobody privately supports.
Historical

Pending editorial review.

Famous Experiments

Pending editorial review.

Design Principles

  • Run anonymous pre-votes before any big group decision.

Measurement Approaches

Pending editorial review.

Evidence

Evidence Grade
B (A strongest → E speculative)
Replication
★★★☆☆
Intervention Confidence
3 / 5
Consensus
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Limitations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Open Research Questions

Pending editorial review.

Primary References

Pending editorial review.

Signature Section

The Perverse Incentive Lens™

How this behavior is exploited — and how to redesign around it.

Exploitation
Watch for consensus that nobody privately supports.
Amplifying Incentives
Watch for consensus that nobody privately supports.
Org Failure Modes
Watch for consensus that nobody privately supports.
Societal Failure Modes
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Ethical Considerations
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Redesign Strategies
Run anonymous pre-votes before any big group decision.
Diagnostic Questions
  • Run anonymous pre-votes before any big group decision.
Warning Signs

Pending editorial review.

Red Flags

Pending editorial review.

Intervention Playbook
Individual
Run anonymous pre-votes before any big group decision.
Team
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Organization
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Policy
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
AI Implications
Detection
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Measurement
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Mitigation
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).
Responsible Use
Pending editorial review (HBT v1.0 auto-seed).

Interactive Mini Network

Click any neighbor to re-center the graph and follow the threads of connection.

HBT-COG-0003 · COG
Abilene Paradox
APADActon's DictumABActor-Observer BiasALAffinity / Liking BiasAlAltruismAsAstroturfingAPAttitude PolarizationABAttribution BiasBEBarnum EffectBJBecause JustificationBCBehavioral Contagion

Knowledge Graph Neighbors

Version History

v1.1.0 · 2026-06-28Initial auto-seed from corpus.